Sim Collaboration

Project Overview and Offer

A scientific consensus is emerging that, in order to stabilize greenhouse gasses in the
atmosphere and prevent self-reinforcing global warming, human society will need to reduce
carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use by approximately 80% over the next two to four
decades.
The transition to a low-carbon economy in the coming few decades is arguably one of the most
challenging undertakings people have faced.

Among other challenges, two stand out.

The first is the complexity of the system that will be changing. In the US, emissions are roughly
divided into thirds – electrical generation, transport, and commercial/residential/industrial. The
interplay of the three sectors is tightly coupled and the effects of changes often delayed – from
fuel switching from oil and coal toward wind, biomass and solar to construction lead times, to the
ways that innovations in land use could affect required mobility and energy use. As a result, some
actions will likely have great leverage towards achieving goals, and some not. It is not enough for
everyone to do everything. We will insight and continual learning as we manage the dynamic
complexity of the transition to a low-carbon world.

The second challenge is the pressing need for a compelling vision of the world we are creating
and the path towards it. No one has captivated human society with their “I have a dream” speech
of a climate-sustaining world. Many have emerged from “An Inconvenient Truth” or similar
experiences with a sense that action is needed and needed now, but towards what desired
future? And what will the journey look like? What will we see regarding wind power, efficient
factories, land use, high-mileage cars, carbon legislation, low-energy buildings, efficient airplanes,
biomass electricity, and forestry? We need concrete, tangible, compelling images, activities and
guides towards the world we are creating.

Our desired goal: to catalyze collective intelligence among hundreds of millions of people, from
local activists to policymakers to business leaders regarding effective carbon mitigation. As
people gain practical experience, they need ways of communicating and a common language to
connect insights in similar contexts (e.g., home, business, community, state, nation, region) and
learn about the long-term implications of actions in our public and private lives.

Our plan has two dimensions.
First, we are creating (and intend to enable many others to co-create) a set of freely accessible,
computer-based simulators with engaging gaming interfaces and beautiful, compelling output
displays. These “Sims” would allow learners, step by step, to deepen their understanding of
climate dynamics, from the most rudimentary “carbon accounting” to progressively more complex
explorations of strategic options for reducing emissions and their likely effects. In turn, by being
assembled from modular building blocks, the games and simulations would enable people to
develop their own versions for their neighborhoods, cities, companies, supply chains, or schools
that minimize their carbon footprint and confront the interdependencies and complexities along
the way – transforming their visions into dynamic, interactive spaces for learning rather than
snapshots of a static idealized world.

Possible approaches include:
• A “Sim-City” type of urban design framing to the experience, where the user retrofits
buildings, changes designs in new cars, plans community land use, and sets a capand-
trade permitting systems for carbon, while watching the results from several
hundred feet above the a region.
• A “Google Earth” global perspective, with international dynamics and activities.

Second, we see the games and simulations as a way to engage a great many people in exploring
alternative futures and then having a common language for sharing about both their insights and
how they are applying them in practical projects. For example, people can create their own
simulations for their companies or supply chains as a way to guide their own change projects,
which they could then share with others operating in similar settings. In order to enable this
sharing and the continual improvement of different simulations and games, we intend to capitalize
on innovations in the Open Source movement (e.g., Wikipedia or more controlled variations such
as Hewlett-Packard’s use of “SuperUsers” for customer engagement) to create a portal or web
2.0 platform, the Carbon Commons. To do this, a team of simulation modelers, graphic
visualization technicians, artists, gaming programmers, and web-site designers has been
assembled and is starting to work.

Technical Information

• Technical specs about the existing models
• Overview of modeling method – System Dynamics
• Equations for SD models
• Links to related models and papers on models

http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_change/challenge.htm

Who We Are

Drew Jones and Beth Sawin, SI
Drew is serving at the project director for this effort. His expertise is creating learning
experiences that help System Dynamics simulation models to generate action. He studied
System Dynamics at MIT.
Beth Sawin leads the “Our Climate, Ourselves” effort at SI. It is dedicated to educating the public
about climate change science and opportunities to take effective action.

Marv Adams, Michelle Erickson, Michael Roberts, CitiGroup
The Citi team brings project design and delivery experience, direct connection to an organization
addressing their climate footprint as well as experience with using simulation to help improve
understanding of complex systems.

Linda Booth Sweeney, SoL
Linda is an expert in learning about complex systems such as climate change. She will be
contributing to the learning plans and the Sim designs. Her paper on this topic was recently
published in Climatic Change.

Tom Fiddaman
Tom is a highly experienced climate modeler who received his PHD from MIT with a system
dynamics model of climate-economy issues. In collaboration with the team, he will be creating
the models behind the Sims. He will be working as an individual contractor through SI. His model
website is http://www.sd3.info/ .

Mike Richards, Ford
Mike brings experience in open source architecture.

Peter Senge. SoL and MIT
Peter is with the Society for Organizational Learning and MIT. He hopes to use the Sim in
multiple settings.

John Sterman, MIT
John, from the System Dynamics Group at MIT, provides scientific depth both in dynamic
modeling and climate science. His paper on learning about climate with Linda Booth Sweeney
(which, in part, motivated the need for these Sims) was recently published in Climatic Change.

Michael Tempel, Schlumberger
Michael contributes to the educational design with a strong grounding in the Sciences. The lead
for the other SEED animated simulations on science and climate science, he will help manage
the creation of the Sims, particularly the relationship with designers such as MamaMedia.
http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_change/index.htm

Feedback

please email:  apjones1(at)bellsouth.net 

Documents

overview

project description